Appropriate Models In Decision Support Systems For River Basin Management

In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the role of models still needs to be emphasized, especially for model-based decision support systems. This paper aims to find appropriate models for decision support systems. An appropriate system is defined as ‘the system can produce final outputs which enable the decision makers to distinguish different river engineering measures according to the current problem’. An appropriateness framework is proposed mainly based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. A flood risk model is used, as a part of the Dutch River Meuse DSS to investigate whether the appropriate framework works. The results showed that the proposed approach is applicable and helpful to find appropriate models

Identification of appropriate temporal scales of dominant low flow indicators in the Main River, Germany

Models incorporating the appropriate temporal scales of dominant indicators for low flows are assumed to perform better than models with arbitrary selected temporal scales. In this paper, we investigate appropriate temporal scales of dominant low flow indicators: precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET) and the standardized groundwater storage index (G). This analysis is done in the context of low flow forecasting with a lead time of 14 days in the Main River, a tributary of the Rhine River, located in Germany. Correlation coefficients (i.e. Pearson, Kendall and Spearman) are used to reveal the appropriate temporal scales of dominant low flow indicators at different time lags between low flows and indicators and different support scales of indicators. The results are presented for lag values and support scales, which result in correlation coefficients between low flows and dominant indicators falling into the maximum 10% percentile range. P has a maximum Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ) of 0.38 (p = 0.95) at a support scale of 336 days and a lag of zero days. ET has a maximum ρ of –0.60 (p = 0.95) at a support scale of 280 days and a lag of 56 days and G has a maximum ρ of 0.69 (p = 0.95) at a support scale of 7 days and a lag of 3 days. The identified appropriate support scales and lags can be used for low flow forecasting with a lead time of 14 days

Identification of an appropriate low flow forecast model\ud for the Meuse River

This study investigates the selection of an appropriate low flow forecast model for the Meuse\ud River based on the comparison of output uncertainties of different models. For this purpose, three data\ud driven models have been developed for the Meuse River: a multivariate ARMAX model, a linear regression\ud model and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The uncertainty in these three models is assumed to\ud be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge. The results show that the ANN\ud low flow forecast model with one or two input variables(s) performed slightly better than the other statistical\ud models when forecasting low flows for a lead time of seven days. The approach for the selection of an\ud appropriate low flow forecast model adopted in this study can be used for other lead times and river basins\ud as well

Deterministic-statistical model coupling in a DSS for river-basin management

This paper presents a method for appropriate coupling of deterministic and statistical models. In the decision-support system for the Elbe river, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to obtain the discharge statistics and corresponding average number of flood days, which is a key input variable for a rule-based model for floodplain vegetation. The required quality of the discharge time series cannot be determined by a sensitivity analysis because a deterministic model is linked to a statistical model. To solve the problem, artificial discharge time series are generated that mimic the hypothetical output of rainfall-runoff models of different accuracy. The results indicate that a feasible calibration of the rainfall-runoff model is sufficient to obtain consistency with the vegetation model in view of its sensitivity to changes in the number of flood days in the floodplains

Simulating Wde-area Replication

We describe our experiences with simulating replication algorithms for use in far flung distributed systems. The algorithms under scrutiny mimic epidemics. Epidemic algorithms seem to scale and adapt to change (such as varying replica sets) well. The loose consistency guarantees they make seem more useful in applications where availability strongly outweighs correctness; e.g., distributed name service

Locked-in and Sticky Textbooks: Mainstream Teaching of the Money Supply Process

Current macro-economic textbooks provide a fatally misleading description of the money supply process in modern economies. Over the past 20 years Post Keynesian authors have established conclusively that despite strictly-enforced cash reserve requirements, changes in the supply of bank deposits are not determined exogenously by central bank open market operations, but are endogenously determined by changes in bank borrowers’ demand for credit. Nevertheless the vast majority of undergraduate macroeconomic textbooks continue to teach the high-powered-base “money-multiplier” paradigm that the supply of money is exogenously determined by the central bank. Few texts recognize that interest rate targeting renders the high-powered base endogenous. This paper summarizes the extent mainstream macroeconomic textbooks are “locked in” and “sticky,” and fail both in the teaching of monetary policy and in proper scientific discourse.macroeconomic textbooks, money supply, endogenous money paradigm, EMP, Post Keynesian economics, paradigm shift

Cascading to the MSSM

The MSSM can arise as an orientifold of a pyramid-like quiver in the context of intersecting D-branes. Here we consider quiver realizations of the MSSM which can emerge at the bottom of a duality cascade. We classify all possible minimal ways this can be done by allowing only one extra node. It turns out that this requires extending the geometry of the pyramid to an octahedron. The MSSM at the bottom of the cascade arises in one of two possible ways, with the extra node disappearing either via Higgsing or confinement. Remarkably, the quiver of the Higgsing scenario turns out to be nothing but the quiver version of the left-right symmetric extension of the MSSM. In the minimal confining scenario the duality cascade can proceed if and only if there is exactly one up/down Higgs pair. Moreover, the symmetries of the octahedron naturally admit an automorphism of the quiver which solves a version of the mu problem precisely when there are an odd number of generations.Comment: 79 pages, 16 figure

Fetal Tachyarrhythmia - Part II: Treatment

The decision to initiate pharmacological intervention in case of fetal tachycardia depends on several factors and must be weighed against possible maternal and/or fetal adverse effects inherent to the use of antiarrhythmics. First, the seriousness of the fetal condition must be recognized. Many studies have shown that in case of fetal tachycardia, there is a significant predisposition to congestive heart failure and subsequent development of fetal hydrops and even sudden cardiac death1,2,3 Secondly, predictors of congestive heart failure have been suggested in several studies, such as the percentage of time that the tachycardia is present, the gestational age at which the tachycardia occurs4, the ventricular rate5 and the site of origin of the tachycardia6. However, the sensitivity of these predictors is low and they are therefore clinically not very useful. In addition, hemodynamic compromise may occur in less than 24 - 48 hours as has been shown in the fetal lamb7 and in tachycardic fetuses8,9. On the other hand, spontaneous resolution of the tachycardia has also been described10. Thirdly, transplacental management of fetuses with tricuspid regurgitation11, congestive heart failure or fetal hydrops is difficult12,13, probably as a result of limited transplacental transfer of the antiarrhythmic drug14,15. In case of fetal hydrops, conversion rates are decreased and time to conversion is increased13. Treatment of sustained fetal tachycardia is therefore to be preferred above expectant management, although some centers oppose this regimen and suggest that in cases with (intermittent) fetal SVT not complicated by congestive heart failure or fetal hydrops, conservative management and close surveillance might be a reasonable alternative16,17,18